Beat the rest, forget the best - How Liverpool can make the top 4

We’re 11 games in to the season and the Premier League table of 2013/14 has already split in two. It has an established top 8 clubs consisting of the two Manchester sides, Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and the surprise package of Southampton. Of the remaining twelve clubs that will likely fill the bottom 12 positions, only West Brom and Swansea look like coherent teams with defined styles of play and discernable plans that offer hope for improvement. Sure, sides like Newcastle have enough talented players in their ranks to throw up surprises from time to time, but in general terms the bottom 12 teams are a group ranging from the hopeless to the average.

Simple maths states that there are 72 points waiting to be accumulated against those second tier Premier League clubs. That total alone is enough to almost guarantee a Champions League finish come May. Last season Manchester United beat every team from 12th position down both home and away, amassing a gargantuan 54 points in the process. While Man City faltered against several of the bottom half sides, United eased their way to a 20th title despite having a much weaker squad than their neighbours thus highlighting just how important it is to beat the dross that unarguably exists within England’s much celebrated top flight.

Currently Arsenal lead the pack in England with Liverpool lying in second place. Neither club has looked flawless or even close to top class but both of those sides have (so far) mastered the art of beating the teams that they are expected to. Indeed, in the case of Liverpool, they have put many of those opponents to the sword with relative comfort  (3-1 vs Crystal Palace, 4-1 vs West Brom, 4-0 vs Fulham, 3-1 vs Sunderland).

Rodgers' side are dispatching the Premier League's poorer sides

The two games that Liverpool have lost this season have been against pressing aficionados Southampton who squeezed the Reds high up the pitch and defended immaculately and the leaders Arsenal who simply had too much quality for Liverpool on the night. The only other top tier opponents Liverpool have faced was Manchester United who they beat 1-0 in a scrappy affair at Anfield. Three points from three games against direct competitors isn’t scintillating form, but it’s not actually proving that important as things stand.  

Over the last few seasons Liverpool suffered numerous frustrating games both home and away against the lesser lights of the Premier League so Brendan Rodgers and his side deserve credit this season for chugging along at a ratio of over 2 points a game so far. The fixture list has been relatively kind up to now but that should not detract from the progress Liverpool have made. They are getting the results that are always expected but have rarely been guaranteed in recent times. Whereas last season Liverpool always looked likely to slip up in games against smaller clubs, not many teams look like they will be able to cope with the Reds this season, especially at Anfield.

Previously, when Liverpool dropped silly points, it was usually against stubborn, obdurate sides who would cede possession, defend deep and look to frustrate them. The likes of West Ham, Stoke, Reading and West Brom all had success with this method in Rodgers’ inaugural season. Such tactics now look increasingly unlikely to bother the Reds.

Teams who have come to Anfield and tried to sit back and soak up pressure this term have been dispatched with consummate ease. Instead, having the guts, stamina and tactical nous to press Liverpool intelligently now looks the best way of winning points against Rodgers’ men, and not many teams have been prepared to adopt such methods this term. If teams stand off against Liverpool these days and let them play then they are more than likely to find a way through. If the incomparable Luis Suarez isn’t the man to do it then Daniel Sturridge probably will. If Sturridge doesn’t, then Philippe Coutinho can unlock a door at any moment. If the little Brazilian isn’t at his best then Steven Gerrard’s delivery can still hurt you and even if the skipper isn’t on form then you constantly have to deal with the threat of the perennially underrated Glen Johnson bombarding you down the right flank.

Liverpool have attacking options that are currently seeing them comprehensively overwhelm lesser sides and that could be their trump card when it comes to securing Champions League football. If teams wish to trust to hope and attempt to cling on for 90 minutes against a side which has an array of attacking quality then more fool them. Liverpool’s weaknesses (and there are plenty, the Reds are nowhere near the finished article) are exposed when sides put them under pressure, not when opponents allow Liverpool to play on the front foot. The encouraging thing for Brendan Rodgers is that so few teams outside of the top 8 are equipped or willing to do so and his team are reaping the rewards as a result.

Liverpool have four extremely tough away games on the horizon starting with the Goodison derby a week on Saturday quickly followed by trips to Spurs, City and Chelsea before we roll into 2014. Perhaps more important than that daunting quartet of fixtures though, are the games against Hull, Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff which also take place before the turn of the year. If Liverpool manage to continue their pattern of putting the smaller sides to the sword and pick up maximum points from those games against the lesser teams then the pressure going into the matches against the top sides will be eased exponentially. Even with poor results against their rivals at the top, a perfect record in the four upcoming easier games would keep them in touch at the top given the nature of the league this season.

It sounds counter intuitive to suggest that games against relegation fodder are more important than the traditionally billed ‘six pointers’ against Champions League rivals, but when you see how often teams at the top are slipping up this season and how Liverpool still lie second despite unimpressive losses to Southampton and Arsenal, it becomes apparent just how crucial it is to continue amassing points against the teams further down the table. 

David Moyes' side are back in contention 

One need only look at how close Manchester United are to the top of the league despite picking up just one win (against Arsenal) and five points from five games against their direct rivals. Sure, getting hammered at City and losing at Anfield was bad for United and drawing with Southampton and Chelsea at home are no reasons to celebrate either, but those early losses and draws already look less significant now than they did three or four weeks ago. Apart from their win against Arsenal last weekend, what results have helped move United from crisis point back into the title picture over the last month? Wins against the awful Stoke, Sunderland and Fulham offset by a home point against Southampton. It’s hardly a sequence of results that would have Bayern Munich shaking in their boots, but it’s been enough of a run to propel United back into contention in the Premier League.

After the turn of the new year and this run of tough away games, the only top 8 teams that Liverpool have to travel to are Southampton and Manchester United.  If the Reds are still in touch with the league leaders come January, then Champions League football for next term will be there for the taking.

Regardless of how they fair at Goodison, White Hart Lane, Eastlands and Stamford Bridge over the next few weeks, Liverpool simply need to keep doing what they are doing and putting away teams who make up the second tier of the Premier League. All the top sides are likely to take points off each other and regarding Champions League qualification, it will be beating the rest, not the best, that could ultimately prove crucial.