Suarez vs The Best: A Statistical Analysis

When top strikers go on a prolonged scoring streak, certain people begin to look for flaws. The most obvious way of denigrating a forward’s goal output is to point out that they don’t score as often against the better teams that they face as they do against the rest of their opponents. Liverpool fans used to cite the fact that Cristiano Ronaldo only scored once from open play against them as if that somehow rendered his incredible achievements meaningless. Ronaldo never scored a league goal against Chelsea, either. Ian Rush took an age to score his first goal against Manchester United and people weren’t shy of reminding him.Critics of Lionel Messi would repeatedly talk about his less favourable record against English clubs. People who don’t want to admit that a forward is truly world class will always use this method to run that player down. It is a last resort. It resides in the final paragraph on the last page in the big book of footballing denial. It is an argument that is now being used against Luis Suarez, the is the latest player to elevate himself to the realms of the ridiculous when it comes to goal scoring.

Suarez has scored 22 times in 16 league games this season for Liverpool and is smashing records left and right. Lots of people still dislike him (as is their right) and therefore attempt to poke holes in his record. More than a few articles have appeared recently (as well as thousands of social networking posts) claiming that Suarez still has to do more against the top sides before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Ronaldo and Messi (or even Zlatan Ibrahimovic if you are unfortunate enough to be a reader of Adrian Durham’s articles in the Daily Mail).

Ronaldo had a poor record against Liverpool and Chelsea

Stating that top strikers’ goal records dip against better opposition is a facile argument. Of course they do. Playing against better drilled, more skilled defensive opponents generally means less goal scoring opportunities for every striker, no matter how good they are. Messi will always be more likely to score more goals against F.C Basle than he would against Chelsea. Ronaldo will always be more likely to score more goals against FC Shalke 04 than he would against Bayern Munich. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work that out but, for some reason, credence has given to this ridiculous argument.

In light of some of the tripe that I‘ve read recently regarding Suarez’s form against England’s best teams, I decided to do some investigating into just how ‘poor’ Liverpool’s number 7 has been against the better sides in the Premier League since the start of last season. My analysis only begins at the beginning of the 2012/13 season because it was only at that point that Suarez elevated himself to being a world class goal scorer after a previously erratic season and a half for the Reds in front of goal. In this article I have selected the best 6 teams in England over the last 18 months that Liverpool have faced and analysed Suarez’s performances against them. The teams are, unsurprisingly; Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton and Spurs.

Since the start of the 2012/13 season, Suarez has featured in 16 league games against those 6 opponents. 11 of those appearances have been away from home with just 5 matches taking place at Anfield. In those 16 games, he has netted 10 times. 3 in 5 at Anfield and 7 in the 11 away fixtures. Now let’s look at his record against each of those sides in isolation, starting with the reigning champions:

Manchester United

Suarez played in Liverpool’s 2-1 home defeat to United at Anfield last season but did not score. He also appeared in Liverpool’s defeat of the same scoreline last season at Old Trafford and again, did not score.

2 Games: 0 Goals

Obviously, 0 goals in 2 games is not something for a striker to write home about but this is a very small sample size and both games took place when Liverpool were a far less threatening team than they have been over the last year. They also played the majority of the home match with 10 men after a red card to Jonjo Shelvey.

Manchester City

Suarez has lined up against City 3 times over the same period. He scored in the 2-2 home draw last term but failed to find the net in a 2-2 draw at the Etihad later in the season and just a few weeks ago Liverpool lost 2-1 to the title favourites away from home. Suarez didn’t score.

3 Games: 1 Goal

Again, 1 in 3 isn’t the best record for Suarez to have but he did score against City in the only home match he played against them and he was mightily impressive leading the line on Boxing Day despite Liverpool’s eventual defeat. He created 2 clear cut goal scoring opportunities for Philippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling that were wasted and he was roundly praised for his performance. His record against City isn’t stellar but it ain’t too shabby either when you look at it in context.

Arsenal

Suarez has played poorly in 2 of the 3 matches he has appeared in against the Gunners over the last 18 months. Liverpool lost the first of those games 2-0 at Anfield and also lost this season by the same scoreline at the Emirates stadium. In that game Suarez hit the post and wasted a one on one chance. He did score away against Arsenal last season in a 2-2 draw, however.

3 Games: 1 Goal

The same record as against City for Suarez but his performances haven’t been as impressive against the North London side.

Chelsea

Suarez was snuffed out of the game at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago and despite the fact that he should have been awarded a penalty in that match, it was probably his quietest performance of the season to date against an extremely well marshalled Chelsea back line. Having said that, he scored home and away against Chelsea last season, earning Liverpool 2 points and also produced a wonderful assist in the match at Anfield for Daniel Sturridge.

3 Games: 2 Goals

Suarez’s record against Chelsea and his performances in general have been good with the exception of the recent fixture at Stamford Bridge.

Everton

Suarez missed the home derby match at Anfield last season due to suspension. He did play in the fixture at Goodison Park though and scored a brace (which should have been a hat trick but for an errant offside decision in the final minute of the game). He also curled home a wonderful free kick in this season’s derby.

2 Games: 3 Goals

Suarez’s record against Everton has been excellent since he joined Liverpool back in 2011 and in the last 2 seasons he has scored 3 crucial goals away from home. A very good record.

Spurs

Suarez opened the scoring in a 3-2 Liverpool win at Anfield last season and also won the decisive penalty later in the match, converted by Steven Gerrard. This season he tore Tottenham apart at the Lane, scoring twice and assisting three goals as the Reds romped home to a 5-0 victory. He failed to find the net at White Hart Lane in last season’s 2-1 defeat.

3 Games: 3 Goals

A goal a game over the past 2 seasons against Spurs is nothing to be sniffed at and his performance in this year’s match will live long in the memory.

Suarez scores at Goodison again

So there we have it. Luis Suarez’s record against the top 6 sides in England over the past season and a half. 16 games, 10 goals at an obvious average of a goal every 1.6 matches. Strikers who can score at better than a goal every other game are at premium in football and, even against the best 6 teams in the country, Suarez is currently scoring at far better than that rate.

If his goal ratio against those teams is more than decent, it is elevated further when we look at his assists in those matches. The penalty he won at home to Spurs, the wonderfully weighted cross for Sturridge against Chelsea, his trio of assists at White Hart Lane not long ago as well as two scruffier assists he was awarded away to Everton and Chelsea this season. That all adds up to 7 goal assists and 10 goals in his 16 games against England’s elite sides.

In those 16 matches, Liverpool scored a total of 27 times, meaning that Suarez has scored or assisted a pretty impressive 63% of the Reds’ goals in those games.

When we go back to just Suarez’s goals though, 10 in 16 obviously falls below his usual standards since the 2012/13 season began. In that time, the striker has netted 45 league goals in 49 games. That averages out to a goal every 1.09 matches. A phenomenal record. To expect him to score at the same rate against top sides like Man City, Arsenal et al is unrealistic (especially when the majority of his games against such stellar sides have come away from home) and if you want to use the fact that his ratio drops to ‘only’ a goal every 1.6 games against the best sides in the country then consider this:

If we extrapolate his ratio of a goal every 1.6 games against these top sides over a 38 game period (the amount of games in a Premier League season), he would still average 23.75 goals in a season. If we round that down to 23 goals (you can’t score 0.75 of a goal, after all), that comes in at just 3 less than last season’s top scorer Robin van Persie managed. Oh, and one further caveat: Luis Suarez doesn’t take penalties. How many pens did van Persie notch last season I hear you ask? Coincidently, 3.

During this ridiculous run of form that Luis Suarez has compiled over the last 18 months or so, he does indeed score less against ‘the big teams’ than he does against the rest of the Premier League. If it comes as a shock to anyone that a world class player scores more goals on average against the likes of Norwich City and West Ham United than he does against Chelsea and Arsenal then I would suggest that they don’t understand football.

The important point here is not that Suarez scores less against Liverpool’s rivals than he does against mid table sides and relegation fodder. Anyone with a brain would assume that. The point is, that for all the besmirching of his record against the elite of the Premier League, Suarez still scores at a more than credible rate.

The Uruguayan is currently just 13 goals away from breaking the Premier League goal scoring record of 34 goals which is jointly held by Alan Shearer and Andy Cole. Both those players amassed their totals in 42 game seasons while the record in the current format of 38 games is held by Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 31 times in 2007/08. Suarez needs 9 goals in the remaining 17 games to eclipse the Portuguese.

So instead of trying to find minute holes in the record of player who is currently peerless in this country and undoubtedly one of the finest players on the planet, can we all just sit back and enjoy him now?

Victor Moses - Who is to blame?

Chelsea are reportedly upset with Liverpool for not giving Victor Moses enough game time. They have seemingly leaked to the press this week that they feel their on loan Nigerian winger should be playing more often for the Reds and they are so upset that they are apparently unwilling to do further business with Brendan Rodgers who holds a long standing interest in their full back Ryan Bertrand. Perhaps they have a right to be angry given the way that Moses’ loan moan has panned out, but that anger is somewhat misdirected. They should save their frustration and ire for their player, not the club they sent him off to. He is the main reason he is not progressing at Anfield.

When Liverpool acquired the services of the 23 year old, as a Liverpool supporter I was pretty happy. Moses had had a decent second half of the 2012/13 season under Rafa Benitez at Stamford Bridge. He’d always looked a talented player in his days at Wigan and when he joined Liverpool he certainly seemed a better bet out wide for the Reds than the peripheral Oussama Assaidi (ironically flourishing on loan away at Stoke City right now) and teenager Raheem Sterling who had fallen down the pecking order after a loss of form. Moses had lots of Premier League experience and undoubtedly, a lot of talent as well.

Victor Moses watches Liverpool as he has done for much of this season

His debut for the Reds was encouraging. He scored a goal away at Swansea in his first start and was pretty impressive in that outing in South Wales, full of direct running and menacing pace. Unfortunately, that performance remains his only significant contribution in Liverpool’s season to date. So what went wrong?

It’s safe to say that Moses is not a popular figure on the Kop. His languid, individualistic style is often a source of frustration and his appetite for hard work has been questioned vociferously. Not without reason, either. Some of his recent displays have been reminiscent of a school boy forced to play a football match in P.E when he’d much rather be at chess club or behind the bike sheds with a Marlboro light. It is a far cry from that promising debut at the Liberty Stadium. Perhaps it’s not all his fault though. Circumstances beyond his control have undoubtedly played a part in his declining game time.

Moses came as a winger, probably identified by Brendan Rodgers as an attacking threat to utilise primarily down Liverpool’s left flank. That is where he played away at Swansea to good effect, after all. The first bump in the road came when Luis Suarez returned from his early season suspension. Daniel Sturridge’s form and Suarez’s availability meant that Rodgers had to play both players up front. That strike partnership led Rodgers to switch to a 3-5-2 formation and the removal of the attacking left wing position that Moses seemed set to occupy. Initially, Rodgers kept Moses in the team despite the systemic reshuffle by deploying the Nigerian behind Liverpool’s impressive strike duo. For a few games he did okay in that role. It was clearly not a position that suited him down to the ground but with Philippe Coutinho injured, Moses offered Rodgers a decent option in that attacking midfield berth.

It didn’t last. Even when Liverpool were still persevering with their three at the back system, Rodgers was soon picking Jordan Henderson to fill the role behind the strikers instead of Moses. Liverpool reverted back to a 4-2-3-1 formation a few weeks later with Daniel Sturridge out injured. That meant two wider midfield roles were now available and Moses was given an opportunity to start away to Hull City back on the left flank. Liverpool were terrible, falling to a 3-1 defeat and Moses was woeful. His nonchalance in the defensive third of the pitch contributed to Liverpool conceding the first goal of the game and his all round performance was somewhat of a disaster. His first touch was awful, his effort appeared minimal and his contribution was negligible. He wasn’t alone in having a bad day at the office but in a pile of rubbish served up by Liverpool on Humberside, Moses still managed to stand out - and not in a good way.

Coutinho and Sterling are keeping Moses out of the team at Anfield

Since that awful outing on December 1st, Moses has played just 100 minutes of football and started once for the Reds. In that time Liverpool have played 8 matches over a crowded Christmas period where rotation is a necessity. The fact that Moses has only been asked to start against Oldham in the cup during that gruelling run of games says enough about how much Brendan Rodgers trusts the player. That Moses was taken off at half time in that game merely adds an exclamation mark to Rodgers’ damning assessment.

Moses now finds himself in an extremely difficult position. Philippe Coutinho is occupying the left wing position for the Reds (and lets be honest, Moses has as much chance of displacing the young Brazilian as he did of displacing Oscar at Chelsea) while Raheem Sterling has stepped up a level on the right flank - the only other position that Moses could fill in Liverpool’s current set up. The teenager’s performances have put Moses to shame in recent weeks and Sterling now looks a far more attractive prospect to play on the Reds right hand side in the second half of the season than the Nigerian. When you factor in Daniel Sturridge’s imminent return, it is pretty hard to see Moses getting back into the Liverpool team any time soon.

A combination of systemic shuffling from Rodgers, good form from other Liverpool players and a chronic lack of interest and good performances from Moses have led to this situation. One could ask why Rodgers signed Moses, an out and out wide forward, if he intended on partnering Sturridge and Suarez together centrally in a formation that essentially negates the need for such a wide player, but at the same time, one must also ask why, when Liverpool have quite often had to use wide forwards this season (albeit when Sturridge or Suarez have been unavailable), Moses hasn’t been able to wake himself from his slumber and actually perform as he undoubtedly can.

Judging by the player’s uninspiring performance against Oldham, it now seems the Chelsea man is resigned to his fate and that he knows he will spend the rest of the season on Liverpool’s bench being a bit part player. Such is the risk a player runs when moving from a highly placed Premier League club to a Premier League club fighting for the same thing. Selection isn’t guaranteed in those circumstances and it was never likely to be for Moses. It was up to him to earn his spot and maintain it with high levels of performance. Ultimately, he has failed to do that and no one in their right mind can say he deserves to be starting ahead of Coutinho or Sterling these days. Chelsea should keep that in mind when they are searching for answers for why their player’s value has decreased since he left London.

Raheem Sterling: Time to eat some Humble pie

Humble pie isn’t generally something that tastes too good. Being served a slice usually involves some embarrassment and an apology you’d rather not give. It’s time for me to swallow some during the course of this article.

I’ve been pretty hard on Raheem Sterling over the past year or so. His form dropped off a cliff around the time he was awarded a bumper contract by Liverpool. He’s had some publicity that has been none too favourable and he seemed to be heading down that path trodden by so many promising starlets before him into career oblivion before he’d even got into his stride. From being a sprightly, energetic bright spot in Brendan Rodgers’ troubled early days on Merseyside, he faded quicker than a new years resolution and spent the first few months of this season as little more than an afterthought. The most optimistic assessment of his career prospects that I could muster a couple of months back was that he was in desperate need of a loan move to reignite a flame that had petered out long ago. Jordan Ibe had replaced him as Liverpool’s most promising young winger in my eyes and I’d have much rather seen Victor Moses in a red shirt than Sterling. Shows what I know, eh?

Sterling’s Liverpool career wasn’t on an upward trajectory during 2013 and it’s nadir came away to Hull City on the first day of December. Liverpool were woeful in defeat and their wingers (Moses and Sterling), bore the brunt of many supporters’ ire, including mine. Taken in isolation, that game seemed to cement the malaise that Sterling had fallen into. He was ineffective throughout and looked every inch a little boy lost rather than a great hope for the future. I fully expected him to be relegated back to the bench or the under 21 squad before being sent off on loan in January in the hope that he could get himself back on track. Brendan Rodgers thankfully had other ideas.

Raheem Sterling is back on track for Liverpool

Sterling started the next match at home to Norwich and bagged his first league goal of the season. A confidence boost. He followed that up with a solid supporting act in the Luis Suarez show against West Ham three days later. Then came Spurs. A tough game away from home against Champions League chasing rivals. I wasn’t expecting much. It was the kind of game that I could see Raheem struggling in. Sterling produced his best 45 minutes in a Liverpool shirt to date with a wonderful first half display. He twisted Kyle Naughton’s blood so badly that the full back was mercifully removed at the break. He got to the byline several times, repeatedly beat his marker on the outside and delivered into the box time and again. He fittingly finished the game with a goal to complete the 5-0 rout. He found the net once more against Cardiff at Anfield and made Philippe Coutinho’s goal away to Manchester City while also having a goal wrongly chalked off for offside by an absurd decision. Even during Liverpool’s toughest 45 minutes of the season away to Chelsea, Sterling was Liverpool’s biggest attacking threat in a difficult first half for the team. He was quieter against Hull City last week but that was to be expected after such a demanding run of fixtures over Christmas. Starting again in the F.A cup against Oldham, he once again provided a goal for the Reds when he shot was deflected into the Kop goal by the unfortunate James Tarkowski.

In a crucial 8 game period, Sterling has been directly responsible for 5 Liverpool goals. For a boy who has just turned 19 and is only in the side because of injury to Daniel Sturridge, that is some going, especially when you factor in that his confidence must have been shot after his display away to Hull just 6 weeks ago.

Goals and direct assists haven’t been the only impressive thing that Sterling has added to his game of late. His pace had been somewhat of a bugbear for me in the past. The general perception from the moment Sterling made it into the first team was that he was a speed demon. I didn’t see it. At youth level, sure he looked incredibly quick, but against Premier League fullbacks he looked nippy at best to my eyes. Since his reintegration though, he seems to have found an extra yard, maybe even two. He threatens in behind defences far more than he did before, evidenced by his goals against Spurs and Cardiff as well as his assist and wrongly disallowed strike at City.

Not only does his speed of foot seem to have helped him offer a greater threat behind opponent’s defences, his runs now seem more intelligent and refined. His partnership with Luis Suarez in that respect is something to behold. Even in the embryonic stages of last season, Suarez assisted the youngster with two through balls for goals against Reading and Sunderland. This season that understanding seems to have gone up another level. The two seem to be on the same wavelength and while Suarez dishes out many a rollocking when Sterling makes a mistake, the Uruguayan seems to take extra delight when a goal is scored by his little accomplice in crime, Raheem. He is a great foil for Suarez when the striker drops deep and adds depth to Liverpool’s attacking play.

Partners in crime: Suarez and Sterling link well together 

Talking of partnerships, Sterling seems quite at ease with Glen Johnson behind him as well. The two have dovetailed pretty effectively despite their partnership coming at a time when Johnson’s form has hit rock bottom. Even when out of nick, Johnson’s desire to attack and his distribution to Sterling have helped the young winger to flourish. If Liverpool’s right back can recapture his best form then that should only bode well for Sterling in the future.

So there you have it: I was wrong about Raheem Sterling. He has knuckled down, improved his end product, his work rate and is proving himself a valuable member of this Liverpool team aged just 19. He clearly doesn’t need a loan move right now and it’s not likely that Jordan Ibe would be doing a better job for Liverpool than the Jamaican born winger if he were playing in his place. His career isn’t set for oblivion, it’s just starting and is again on a tangible upward curve. My humble pie has been eaten and to be honest, it tastes pretty sweet at the moment. In fact, I’d love seconds.