Not Pacquiao
No doubt coupled with the disappointment of seeing yet another round of Pacquiao-Mayweather negotiations fall through, much of the boxing world let out a resigned sigh when the confirmation of Mayweather-Cotto arrived 2 weeks ago. "Another easy win for Floyd. Another bull shit fight". The odds already show Mayweather as a 1/7 favourite with the bookmakers. Most Mayweather fans believe that Cotto offers little threat to Floyd's unblemished record and in truth, most Cotto fans (like myself) feel the same even if they choose to keep their reservations more private. You would be hard pressed to find a boxing expert who will give Cotto more than a puncher's chance at the MGM Grand in just over 3 months time.
It shouldn't be that way though. Miguel Cotto is multiple weight-class world champion. A man with one (at most) legitimate loss on his record. He is bigger than Floyd. He is younger than Floyd. He is fighting at his weight class (the junior middleweight division) against a fighter who has only been there once in his career (exactly 5 years previous come fight night). He is a legitimately world class fighter and before his 'loss' to Antonio Margarito in 2008, he was the man the that every boxing fan wanted to see in the ring with Mayweather. Floyd was relentlessly accused of ducking Cotto before Margarito temporarily derailed Miguel's career with the aid of his illegally loaded gloves. Cotto, unbeaten going in to 2008 like Floyd, was seen as the young Puerto Rican warrior who could overcome Mayweather's peerless defensive skills. Sadly, due to a combination of Margarito's cheating and Mayweather's short lived 'retirement' the fight between the best two welterweights in the world at that time never came to fruition.
Who else?
Outside of Manny Pacquiao, at this moment Miguel Cotto is the best match up for Floyd. He has won 3 straight fights against Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito, stopping all three inside the distance. He has looked more comfortable at 154lbs than he previously did at 147lbs (or 145lbs in his catch weight bout with Pacquiao) and remains one of the most feared body punchers in boxing. Against anyone else, the thought of Miguel Cotto being a 7/1 underdog is simply inconceivable. Manny Pacquiao himself wanted a rematch with Cotto before this fight was signed but during negotiations Team Pacquiao insisted on another catch weight that Cotto wouldn't agree to. Good for him; once bitten twice shy.
Pacquiao's camp know that at 154lbs Cotto is a different animal than the man who looked drained and weak the night he weighed in at 145lbs against Manny back in 2009. Taking all the above into account and throwing in the caveat that Floyd Mayweather is now 35 years old, this should be being billed as a mega fight that could potentially go either way, indeed, it would be if it weren't for the fact that Floyd Mayweather is by far and away the most skilled boxer of his generation.
Despite his age, his inactivity, a jail sentence hanging over his head and the quality of his opponent, anything other than a Mayweather win will be the biggest shock to boxing since Mike Tyson was knocked out by Buster Douglas. If Cotto had signed a fight with Manny Pacquiao at 154lbs you can guarantee people would give him a damn good chance of attaining revenge on the Filipino. Fighting Floyd at the same weight though? Not so much.
Some people have criticised Floyd for fighting 'Manny's leftovers' by taking this fight with Cotto but I don't see it that way at all. Realistically who else could Floyd have fought? Sergio Martinez has an upcoming bout and is simply too big for Floyd, a fight at around 150lbs would mean Martinez draining himself a dangerous amount and if the fight was above 150lbs Floyd would be dramatically over matched in terms of size. Martinez is not a box office draw like Cotto either. Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez might be a promising young fighter but the biggest win on his resume is currently Kermit Cintron. Hardly enough to warrant a ' super fight' with the best fighter on the planet. Robert Guerrero was mentioned but he is yet to fight at junior welterweight let alone 147lbs and Amir Khan, the other box office name on offer to Mayweather must first avenge his defeat to Lamont Peterson before he steps up. Cotto therefore, is the best opponent Floyd could have picked both from a financial standpoint and in terms of competition. It is not Mayweather's fault that anyone he faces provides minimal risk to his undefeated streak. Regrettably, he wasn't born into an era that contained fighters like Tommy Hearns, Ray Leonard, Marvin Hagler, Roberto Duran or Wilfred Benitez but he should not be criticised or penalised for this.
Cotto Mk. II
Many fans feel that Cotto is not the same fighter he was a few years ago and while this may be the case, he should still pose a bigger threat to Floyd than he did against Pacquiao, at least in theory. When Cotto was knocked out in the 12th round against Manny he was coming off 2 gruelling fights with Margarito (loaded gloves and all) and Joshua Clottey. Mentally he was damaged and his body was getting too big to make the welterweight limit and for that particular fight he had to come in 2lbs under the welterweight limit to face the 'smaller' Pacquiao who looked far more comfortable and healthy at the weight. Cotto looked slightly drawn and while undoubtedly cut, his body looked slender next to Pacquiao, a man who, at their natural weights, Cotto dwarfs.
Despite all that, he boxed relatively well in a competitive first half of the fight, getting to Pacquiao and landing some sickening uppercuts and hooks. He only retreated into his shell after a powerful second knock down in round 4 of the fight that hurt him badly. His career at welterweight thankfully ended that night and he subsequently moved up to the 154lb division where he has looked more like the Cotto of old, boxing well and systematically breaking down all of his opponents whilst capturing and defending the WBA title.
On a personal note, this is a meeting of my two favourite current fighters. On May 5th my heart will be hoping for an upset but my head says that Floyd runs out a convincing winner. Cotto is going to have to box at a level he has never reached before and do it for 12 rounds if he is to beat Floyd. Getting off solid blows on Floyd Mayweather consistently is akin to winning the lottery 5 times in a row. It just doesn't happen. Every time Miguel tries to get inside and land his left hook Floyd will be there, blocking and countering as he always has done. If Miguel keeps his distance and tries to jab Floyd will attack with his devastatingly accurate lead right hand. From a tactical standpoint Floyd Mayweather is a nightmare to face. As he revels in telling us, there is no blue print on how to beat him. "42 have tried and 42 have failed" he proudly repeats over and over and he is right. I'm banking on Cotto at least making it a semi competitive fight more down to his will than his skill but I can't see anything other than Floyd capturing yet another title in comprehensive fashion.
The Facts
No other match up could be made right now that offers more of a threat to Floyd Mayweather's continued dominance. Miguel Cotto is the hardest opponent that he can take on right now. The problem for Cotto and the rest is that it really doesn't matter who the opponent is, whoever Floyd fights people will call it a mismatch and with good cause. Floyd fighting anyone is a mismatch. Miguel Cotto is one of the best fighters of our generation. Floyd Mayweather is one of the best fighters of any generation. That is the cold reality facing Cotto on May 5th. I wish him the best of luck, he will undoubtedly need it.
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